Is the Devil in the Details?
First let’s review the situation: there are three weeks left until the American elections.
Nancy Pelosi, the Democrat Leader, is holding up the “Pandemic Economic Packet” that Donald Trump so desperately wants passed.
The reasoning is straightforward. Any postponement of economic normalization hurts Trump.
The Democrats are dragging their feet so as to postpone any economic rejuvenation until after the election.
Trump has bet all his election chips on an economic revival and rapid defeat of Covid19.
Trump is well aware that the speed of an economic recovery positively correlates with his election success!
This is where I must digress!
Traditional skepticism needs to be acknowledged. The fact that Turkish public opinion in some part reflexively asked if ‘Trump’s sickness is possibly an act?’ demonstrates the influence of conspiratorial thinking…
I’m going to give a clear answer as someone that has lived in the U.S. for 40 years: Definitely Not!
AN AGED WOLF: BIDEN
Fast approaching 80 years of age with a 48 year political career behind him Biden has not inspired any great voter enthusiasm or hope. In fact the light in his eyes is dimming.
The election dynamics are all about “Love or hate Trump”.
You can be sure that a Biden victory will usher in an attempted restoration by the American elite of America’s super power status and its’ former role in the world.
It’s unsurprising that the American liberal media eagerly awaits a restoration of its’ influence in such a world order.
You’d almost think that they’ve copied the template used by the Turkish media in the 80’s and 90’s.
Let’s get to the details of the devil’s ambush….
I’ve researched it for you!
American democracy is not a pure “vote-cracy”.
It’s a mixed system. A majority in the popular vote does not automatically guarantee victory. If so Hillary Clinton would be President.
America uses a system called an “Electoral College”. Each state chooses a “Delegate Slate”. The presidential candidate that wins the state wins all the state’s delegates. There are two states that use a different election model but their impact on the outcome is marginal. The President is chosen by these Delegates shortly after the election.
Now we come to the all-important number…
Those old enough will remember. Demirel who used village wiles to reach the pinnacle of Turkish politics had a saying: ‘Find 226 And Takeover’.
In those days a parliamentary majority was 226 seats.
Dear reader the situation is similar here. In America the magic number is 270. Win 270 delegates, win the Presidency.
A review of latest state polls indicates that Biden has 222 guaranteed delegates.
Trump is forecasted to have 125 guaranteed or likely delegates. Additionally there are 68 delegates which are leaning toward Biden and 56 in favor of Trump leaving 67 up for grabs.
So that leaves three or four critical states that are in play with Florida the most important. We may need to turn off our screens at 8:30 pm on election night when Florida’s winner is projected.
We can’t be sure of this forecast though without examining a few parameters which are critical to the equation.
The first parameter is voting through the mail.
The number of mail-in votes in this election are at a record high.
Trump has been claiming that mail-in voting is prone to a high fraud rate. If the vote in a few critical states is in Biden’s favor by a small margin Trump will may claim fraud calling results into question.
This would put the election in the hands of the courts and failing an outcome possibly in the hands of the Pentagon.
The second parameter is the silent majority. There are a large number of whites who are not showing their true faces for fear of being labeled “racist” in the face of ongoing protests which have been accompanied by anarchic rioting and looting.
How do I know? I hear anecdotes.
Gun sales are at record levels. While passing a newly opened gun store near my neighborhood on Monday I noticed a line in front of it. Composed of both women and men. You’d think it was a gas line…
Dear reader the situation is fluid, I’ll leave it here for now but there are potentially serious implications for Turkey.
As the outcome approaches I will further deepen and expand my analysis.A future war provocation (Casus Belli) against Turkey may even be impacted by the choice of president.
Translation: Deniz Mehmed